Kebijakan Pembangunan_S1 Ekonomi Pembangunan_International Class_TA Genap 25/26

Endi Muhammad Akbar AS
2311021026

Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia pada kuartal I tahun 2026 menunjukkan bahwa konsumsi rumah tangga masih menjadi penopang utama pertumbuhan, sementara tekanan global, pelemahan perdagangan internasional, dan ketergantungan pada impor bahan baku masih menjadi tantangan besar bagi struktur ekonomi nasional. Dalam kondisi tersebut, kebijakan industrialisasi dan strategi belanja pemerintah harus diarahkan untuk memperkuat ketahanan ekonomi jangka panjang, bukan hanya menjaga pertumbuhan sesaat.

Terkait meningkatnya ketergantungan Indonesia terhadap impor bahan baku, pemerintah sebaiknya menerapkan kebijakan industrialisasi berbasis hilirisasi dan substitusi impor yang terintegrasi. Selama ini, banyak industri nasional masih bergantung pada bahan baku, mesin, dan komponen impor sehingga ketika terjadi pelemahan nilai tukar atau gangguan rantai pasok global, produksi domestik ikut terganggu. Oleh karena itu, industrialisasi tidak cukup hanya membangun pabrik akhir, tetapi harus memperkuat industri hulu dan menengah di dalam negeri. Pemerintah perlu mendorong pengembangan industri petrokimia, baja, farmasi, semikonduktor, serta bahan baku pertanian dan energi melalui insentif fiskal, kemudahan investasi, transfer teknologi, dan penguatan riset nasional.

Selain itu, kebijakan industrialisasi juga harus berbasis peningkatan nilai tambah sumber daya alam domestik. Program hilirisasi seperti pada nikel dan mineral strategis perlu diperluas ke sektor lain agar Indonesia tidak terus menjadi eksportir bahan mentah. Dengan demikian, Indonesia dapat menciptakan rantai produksi nasional yang lebih mandiri, meningkatkan penyerapan tenaga kerja, serta mengurangi tekanan defisit transaksi berjalan akibat impor bahan baku. Pengembangan kawasan industri yang terhubung dengan pelabuhan, energi, dan pusat logistik juga penting agar biaya produksi domestik menjadi lebih kompetitif.

Menurut saya, program pengeluaran pemerintah seperti bantuan sosial dan subsidi memang penting, terutama untuk menjaga daya beli masyarakat dan stabilitas ekonomi jangka pendek. Ketika kondisi ekonomi melemah, bantuan sosial dapat meningkatkan konsumsi rumah tangga sehingga aktivitas ekonomi tetap berjalan. Subsidi energi dan pangan juga membantu menahan inflasi agar masyarakat berpenghasilan rendah tidak semakin tertekan. Oleh karena itu, dalam situasi krisis atau perlambatan ekonomi, kebijakan bantuan sosial memiliki efek cepat terhadap pemulihan ekonomi.

Namun, untuk mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi jangka panjang, pembangunan infrastruktur cenderung lebih efektif dibandingkan bantuan sosial dan subsidi. Infrastruktur seperti jalan tol, pelabuhan, bendungan, jaringan listrik, dan internet meningkatkan produktivitas ekonomi karena memperlancar distribusi barang, menurunkan biaya logistik, serta membuka akses investasi dan lapangan kerja baru. Infrastruktur juga memiliki efek berganda (multiplier effect) yang besar terhadap sektor industri, perdagangan, dan UMKM.

Meskipun demikian, pembangunan infrastruktur tidak boleh dipertentangkan secara mutlak dengan bantuan sosial. Keduanya memiliki fungsi yang berbeda. Bantuan sosial berperan menjaga stabilitas sosial dan konsumsi masyarakat dalam jangka pendek, sedangkan infrastruktur membangun kapasitas ekonomi jangka panjang. Kebijakan yang ideal adalah menyeimbangkan keduanya: bantuan sosial diberikan secara tepat sasaran dan efisien, sementara pembangunan infrastruktur diarahkan pada proyek-proyek produktif yang mendukung industrialisasi, ketahanan pangan, dan konektivitas ekonomi nasional.

Dengan kombinasi industrialisasi berbasis hilirisasi, penguatan industri domestik, serta belanja negara yang produktif dan tepat sasaran, Indonesia memiliki peluang lebih besar untuk menciptakan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang berkelanjutan dan tahan terhadap guncangan global.

Name : Hanesty Aghnia R.H
Npm : 23111021015

In my opinion, kalau Indonesia terus terlalu bergantung sama imported raw materials, lama lama it could weaken our national economic resilience and make Indonesia too dependent on other countries. Di materi juga dijelaskan kalau kenaikan impor di Q1 2026 mostly came from industrial raw materials, machinery, and capital goods. Even though this shows that production activities and infrastructure projects are growing, menurut saya kondisi ini tetap risky for the long term because Indonesia can become more vulnerable to global price fluctuations and rupiah depreciation. That’s why i think the government should focus more on industrialization policies that can strengthen domestic industries. Salah satu contohnya adalah hilirisasi di sektor nikel dan kelapa sawit yang menurut saya already shows a positive impact. Indonesia shouldn’t only export raw materials, but also process them into finished or semi finished products domestically so they have higher value. Besides that, menurut saya pemerintah juga perlu support local industries through technology development, factory expansion, and improving workers’ skills supaya industri Indonesia bisa compete better with foreign products.

For the second question, honestly i think social assistance and subsidies are still very important, especially for short term economic stability. Karena di Q1 2026, household consumption increased partly because of government programs such as MBG, social assistance, and THR for civil servants. These programs helped maintain people’s purchasing power and kept the economy moving during uncertain global conditions. Tapi, when talking about long term economic growth, i personally believe infrastructure development is more effective. Pembangunan jalan tol, pelabuhan, bandara, dan fasilitas industri can improve productivity, support business activities, attract investors, and create more job opportunities in the future. The material also explained that infrastructure and manufacturing development contributed significantly to investment growth in Q1 2026. So menurut saya, social assistance works better as a short term stimulus, while infrastructure development gives a more sustainable impact on Indonesia’s economic growth in the long run.

Name: Nanda Emalia
NPM: 2311021074

1. If Indonesia keeps depending too much on imported raw materials, I think the government should focus on building stronger domestic industries. Right now, many industries still rely on imported steel, chemicals, machinery, and other industrial inputs. This can be risky because if global prices increase or supply chains are disrupted, Indonesia’s production activities can also be affected.
One important policy is strengthening upstream industries so raw materials can be produced locally instead of imported. Besides that, the government should continue the downstream industrialization (hilirisasi) program, especially in sectors like nickel, bauxite, and palm oil. By processing natural resources into higher-value products inside the country, Indonesia can reduce dependence on imports and increase export value at the same time.
The government should also support domestic manufacturing through investment incentives, technology development, and research programs. In my opinion, imports are not always bad, especially if they are used for productive purposes like machinery or industrial equipment. However, Indonesia should slowly reduce excessive dependence on foreign raw materials by developing stronger local supply chains. This would make the economy more stable and resilient in the long run.

2. In my opinion, social assistance and subsidies are important, but infrastructure development is more effective for long-term economic growth. Programs like social assistance, subsidies, and cash transfers can help people directly, especially lower-income households. These programs also help maintain people’s purchasing power and increase consumption during difficult economic conditions.
However, the effects are usually short term. Once the assistance stops, the impact on the economy may also decrease. Infrastructure development, on the other hand, gives long-term benefits because it improves productivity and supports economic activities for many years. Better roads, ports, airports, electricity, and digital infrastructure can reduce transportation costs, improve business efficiency, attract investment, and create more jobs.
That is why I think infrastructure development has a stronger impact on sustainable economic growth. Even so, social assistance is still necessary, especially to reduce inequality and protect vulnerable groups. So, the best approach is balancing both policies: maintaining social support programs while continuing productive infrastructure investment for long-term development.

ayu nabila fauziah w
2361021001

1. If Indonesia’s dependence on imported raw materials continues to increase, i think the government should focus more on developing domestic industries. for example, by utilizing Indonesia’s natural resources so they can be processed locally, which would reduce dependence on other countries. In addition, the government can support local companies through financial assistance, technology development, and workforce training. That way, domestic industries can grow stronger and Indonesia’s economy will be more resilient during global economic problems.

2. In my opinion, social assistance and subsidies are important, especially to help people who are struggling financially.however, for long-term economic growth, infrastructure development has a bigger impact. roads, ports, and other facilities can make economic activities run more smoothly, create job opportunities, and attract investors to Indonesia. so, i think both are equally important, but they need to be balanced according to the country’s needs.

Zakiya Rakha Fadhillah
2311021117

1. The PPT mentioned that the increase in imports in Q1 2026 was driven in part by the increasing demand for industrial raw materials. If this trend continues unchecked, the risk is a widening current account deficit and pressure on the rupiah exchange rate.
The most relevant policy is deepening downstream processing, a key strategy for Indonesia, particularly for nickel, bauxite, and palm oil. By processing raw materials domestically, Indonesia reduces dependence on imports while increasing export value. Furthermore, the government needs to encourage import substitution through incentives for the domestic raw materials industry and diversify trading partners to reduce over-reliance on a single supply source that is vulnerable to geopolitical disruptions.

2. Both have a role, but in the long term, infrastructure is superior. The PPT material explains that investment (GFCF) grew by 5.96%, representing 28.29% of GDP, creating jobs, increasing production capacity, and sustainably boosting productivity.
Social assistance such as MBG and THR are indeed effective in boosting short-term consumption, as evidenced by the 21.81% surge in government spending in Q1 2026. However, their absolute contribution to GDP remains limited, as they only account for 6.71%. They serve more as a countercyclical buffer than a foundation for growth.
Ideally, the two should complement each other: social assistance maintains people's purchasing power in the short term, while infrastructure builds productive capacity for sustainable growth.

For me , if Indonesia becomes increasingly dependent on imported raw materials, the government should focus on downstream industrialization and strengthening domestic industries. Indonesia actually has abundant natural resources, but many of them are still exported in raw form and then re-imported as finished products at higher prices. This situation weakens national economic resilience because Indonesia becomes highly vulnerable to global supply chain disruptions, exchange rate instability, and rising international commodity prices.
I think the government should encourage the development of domestic manufacturing industries, especially in sectors such as energy, agriculture, mining, and technology. Policies should include tax incentives for local industries, support for research and innovation, and investment in vocational education to improve the quality of human resources. Indonesia also needs to reduce its dependence on imported industrial materials by building integrated industrial zones and supporting local suppliers.
The Q1 2026 data shows that manufacturing and construction were among the important contributors to economic growth. Therefore, strengthening industrialization is not only important for short-term growth, but also for creating long-term economic independence. If Indonesia can process more raw materials domestically, it will create more jobs, increase exports of high-value products, and make the economy more resilient during global crises.

Personally, I believe that infrastructure development is more effective than social assistance and subsidies for promoting long-term economic growth. Social assistance and subsidies are important, especially to protect low-income communities and maintain purchasing power during difficult economic conditions. In fact, Indonesia’s Q1 2026 growth was strongly supported by government spending programs and household consumption.
However, in the long run, infrastructure creates a much bigger economic impact. Better roads, ports, transportation systems, internet access, and energy infrastructure can increase productivity, reduce logistics costs, and attract domestic and foreign investment. Infrastructure also supports industrialization because factories and businesses need efficient transportation and energy systems to operate competitively.
In my view, social assistance only gives temporary economic relief, while infrastructure creates sustainable economic opportunities. For example, when the government builds ports or industrial areas, businesses can grow faster, exports can increase, and new jobs can be created continuously. That is why countries with strong infrastructure usually have stronger economic competitiveness.
Even so, I think the best strategy is balance. The government still needs social assistance to maintain social stability and help vulnerable groups, but infrastructure investment should remain the main priority if Indonesia wants to achieve stable and sustainable long-term economic growth.

Name: Bagus Kadek Windu
NPM: 2311021072

1. Industrialization Policy to Reduce Dependence on Raw Material Imports

In my opinion, Indonesia needs to be more serious about promoting the downstreaming of its industries, not only in the nickel and bauxite sectors, which are already underway, but also in agricultural sectors such as palm oil and marine products. If we continue to import raw materials, we will simply become a "worker" and "consumer" nation in the global production chain. There are several steps the government could take.

First, the government must strengthen integrated industrial zones, such as Special Economic Zones (SEZs), so that manufacturing companies there can be established and encouraged so they don't need to import raw materials from far away, as they are readily available locally from local suppliers. Second, there needs to be real incentives for investors who want to build raw material industries domestically, for example, long-term tax breaks for companies that build not only factories but also complex supply chains in Indonesia. Third, MSMEs need to be encouraged to enter the supply chain of large industries more extensively so that their ecosystem grows from the bottom up, as is currently the case for ministries and state-owned enterprises.

Furthermore, I find this report concerning not the volume of imports, but their composition. If imports are dominated by machinery and capital goods, as mentioned, that's still reasonable and "better" because it supports production. However, if they shift over time to consumer goods, that's dangerous for the competitiveness of our domestic industry.

2. Social Assistance and Subsidies vs. Infrastructure:

In my opinion, if we look at the Q1 2026 data, programs like the MBG and THR  have been proven to directly and quickly boost household consumption, but their contribution is only 2.94% of the total growth of 5.61%. So, in the short term, social assistance and subsidies are indeed effective in maintaining people's purchasing power, especially during times of global pressure like now.

However, in the long term, infrastructure is far more strategic than social assistance/subsidies. For example, the development of toll roads, ports, or airports in the regions will reduce logistics and shipping costs, connecting remote areas to markets, thereby attracting investment and boosting economic growth in those regions. The benefits aren't immediately felt, but the multiplier effect is far greater and more sustainable.

The problem is, social assistance is often more politically popular because its impact is felt immediately by the public. Meanwhile, infrastructure takes years to be fully realized. Therefore, the government should be more prudent in managing its proportions. Social assistance remains there to maintain social stability, but it shouldn't erode the infrastructure budget, which is an investment for the future.